Need someone to evaluate "Merlin Project" Best answer on the web
n second thought, paf, if I do use the public library, I should just
ask how to access "CNN-Larry King Live"? Or ask for researching
transcripts in press and other media under the subject "Merlin Project"? Thanks
I'm not sure just where you looked at LexisNexis, but I often access it at their pay-per-use site:
http://web.lexis.com/xchange/ccsubs/cc_prods.asp
You don't need to commit to one thing or the other (e.g. news vs legal). Just pick the one you want to use, and pay for each item you retrieve. A newspaper article, for instance, is $3.00, which isn't bad.
You'll have to play with the system a bit to get a feel for it, and see if it suits you, but I must admit, now that I've learned its idiosyncrasies, I find it absolutely essential in my work.
But before you even go poking around with LexisNexis, check to see what you're local library has available online. Many community libraries now have databases available that you can access right from home, so you don't even have to venture out to the library to make use of them. Ask your librarian what they have.
Good luck with your researching. If there's anything else I can assist you with, just let me know by posting a follow-up note here. I'll be sure to see it.
Cheers,
paf
There's more to Merlin than meets the eye despite the obvious drawbacks you cited.
Joint Chiefs Report was in fact requested by the Joint Chiefs. That it was done gratis should not be used as a metric for quality. You'd be surprised how much is done for "free" within the inner world of the Pentagon and other puzzle palaces. Many of these solicited "White Papers" have lasting impact.
These two new postings will answer some of your questions, but certainly not all. There's a new science involved here, but trying to get one's head around it is extremely challenging. It might be an interesting exercise for pafalafa to try to determine what "I" should be in dI/dt = C I^n never mind "C". At this point in history this is as tough as what faced the Solvay Conference a century ago as they wrestled with the early basic concepts of quantum mechanics. What I'm talking about in the "Curriculum" document is not "Information Theory" which is something else altogether, but information as a form of biology or perhaps chemistry paying particular attention to its growth rate as accelerated by interacting with itself. This very e-mail as well as your question and answer are examples of that process in action, speeded up by the technology that in turn was produced by that same process. If you "get" what the Curriculum document is pointing to you may find it hard to sleep at night as your mind bubbles with excitement and tries to take the next baby steps towards defining this new science. It's not a complicated idea, but it's a very large one.
http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/Documents/Curriculm%20For%20the%2021st%20Century_Version_1-1.pdf
http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/merlin_blog.htm#?Laws?%20Related%20to%20the%20Science%20of%20Merlin
The sketchiness of what I have provided is as frustrating to me as it no doubt is to you.
By the way I'm still hard at work in science and engineering on things related to laser radar, radar, GPS and field testing as a senior advisor to the Pentagon on missile defense (often trying to stop half-baked notions from getting funded/fielded). Also still work at least part of the time directly with my hands in building hardware and writing software to keep me honest.
My main efforts are in system architecture and application analysis on sensors pushing the state of the art to the outer edge, especially as part of a network of bewildering complexity.
Hope you enjoy your follow-up research, and if you would like any additional suggestions on using LexisNexis or similar sources, just post a note here to let me know (anytime at all, today or in the future) and I'll be sure to get back to you.
paf
I'm not sure just where you looked at LexisNexis, but I often access
it at their pay-per-use site:
http://web.lexis.com/xchange/ccsubs/cc_prods.asp
You don't need to commit to one thing or the other (e.g. news vs
legal). Just pick the one you want to use, and pay for each item you
retrieve. A newspaper article, for instance, is $3.00, which isn't
bad.
You'll have to play with the system a bit to get a feel for it, and
see if it suits you, but I must admit, now that I've learned its
idiosyncrasies, I find it absolutely essential in my work.
But before you even go poking around with LexisNexis, check to see
what you're local library has available online. Many community
libraries now have databases available that you can access right from
home, so you don't even have to venture out to the library to make use
of them. Ask your librarian what they have.
Good luck with your researching. If there's anything else I can
assist you with, just let me know by posting a follow-up note here.
I'll be sure to see it.
Cheers,
paf
As for more general searches on transcripts for the Merlin Project, I did not see any other than the Larry King transcripts. But they may well be out there just the same so, sure...ask for research on those as well.
All the best,
paf
I look forward to hearing back from you.
paf
Thanks for a very interesting question.
In asking whether the work of the Merlin Project is science or pseudoscience, it helps to lay out some of the markers that can used to distinguish the two. What makes science, science, afterall?
Two things stand out in this regard:
1. Adherence to the scientific method.
We can turn to the ever-useful Wikipedia for a reminder of our school-book lessons on the scientific method:
-----http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
The scientific method or process is considered fundamental to the scientific investigation and acquisition of new knowledge based upon physical evidence. Scientists propose new assertions about our world in the form of theories: observations, hypotheses, and deductions. Predictions from these theories are tested by experiment. If a prediction turns out to be correct, the theory survives. Any theory which is cogent enough to make predictions can then be tested reproducibly in this way. The method is commonly taken as the underlying logic of scientific practice. The scientific method is essentially an extremely cautious means of building a supportable, evidenced understanding of our world. -----
This is a nice overview that captures many key features:
--Careful observation of events in the world around us
--Proposal of explanations about the mechanisms underlying those events (hypothoses, etc).
--Predictions about yet-to-be observed phenomenon
--Experiments to test these predictions
Wikipedia also emphasizes reproducibility -- other scientists should be able to duplicate the results of a scientific experiment, to assist in confirming results. This necessarily entails conducting "controlled" experiments, and then making detailed information accessible about one's experiments and results.
2. Immersion in the "culture" of science
Another way of recognizing science is that scientists are generally fairly-well steeped in the culture of their profession. They publish their work in peer-reviewed scientific journals. Works are heavily referenced with papers from other scientific journals. They attend scientific meetings and present their findings before other scientists for critical review and evalution. They (usually, but not always) have a set of scientific "credentials" -- degrees from such-and-such a university, lists of publications, positions in learned societies, and so on, all presented in curriculm vitae with long lists of educational and professional accomplishments.
Although not as essential to distinguishing science from pseudoscience, the immersion (or lack thereof) in the culture of science is certainly an important consideration.
Now, how does the Merlin Project fare in regard to the two items above?
First -- and in fairness to the Merlin Project -- we should ask a very fundamental question: Are they even presenting themselves as "science"? Are they claiming to have achieved some sort of scientific result?
I searched the Merlin site for any of the following terms:
[science OR scientific OR experiment OR experimental]
There were 13 "hits" on these terms:
://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GGLD,GGLD:2003-43,GGLD:en&q=site:www%2Eaccessbest%2Ecom+science+OR+scientific+OR+experiment+OR+experimental
and only a few of these were in a context that might be regarded as scientific.
However, the results that did come up clearly indicate that the Merlin Project sees itself -- and intends to be seen -- as a serious scientific endeavor.
In particular, there is this mention of their experimental results:
-----http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/timetrak.htm
Overall, MERLIN's accuracy has approached 80 percent. In one controlled experiment coordinated by a group of GE(nie ) scientists and skeptics, MERLIN assigned accident dates to their respective victims with an accuracy rate that outperformed chance odds by a whopping 30,000 to 1. -----
Although only a brief reference, this excerpt certainly makes mention of many of the hallmarks of science: predictions, experiments, exacting results and "cultural" involvement of other scientists as well as skeptics. It -- along with other assertions at the site -- certainly gives the Merlin Project the appearance of being a scientific endeavor.
But an essential element is missing here: Where is the information about the experiment? How was it conducted? What methods were used? Who were the scientists and skeptics involved? Where are the results published? Even if the site itself doesn't care to offer this level of detail (which could easily overwhelm a casual visitor) they should certainly provide references to where the information can be found.
But they do not.
The same link also mentions their grand intent:
-----MERLIN will lay the groundwork for an entirely new 21st century science of pattern, information, intelligence and consciousness unlike anything which currently exists; a science as revolutionary as quantum physics and as far reaching in it's impact. -----
So, according to the Merlin Project, an entire new branch of science is emerging out their groundbreaking work.
There is additional language (again, at the same link) that sheds some additional light on their efforts:
-----...MERLIN combines the exactness of planetary mathematics with recognized historical cycles to create snapshots of time by using a single, "frozen moment" of time as a starting point. The resulting chronographs, called ?Timetraks ? are highly individualized patterns, tracings in time that begin when we are born or a key ("genesis") event occurs...
...While relating celestial movements to human events has long been a controversial subject, MERLIN's track record of timely and accurate predictions speaks for itself. Notable forecasting successes include: the acquittal of O.J. Simpson, the scandals of the Bill Clinton presidency and the Presidential bid of Bob Dole, Leno's underdog triumph over Letterman, the emergence of JFK Jr., the demise of National Health Care, the Republican Revolution of 1994, the timetable for the breakup of the Soviet Union, the follies of the second Bush Administration, including the duration and chaotic aftermath of both the Gulf and Iraqi Wars, the continued survival of Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden, the resurgence of John Kerry and the failed Presidential bid of Howard Dean and many other timely events.
...MERLIN will also present a clear conceptual framework which for the first time will provide a firm foundation for "legitimizing" traditional predictive systems like astrology. -----
Again, there is language here that invokes images of a sceintific endeavor ("...the exactness of planetary mathematics..."), but there is no real information about what they're doing, how they're doing it, or what the outcomes are. The inference is clear -- that they can make successful predictions about events in the near-future-- but there's nothing here that establishes their "track record" of success other than their say-so.
They do mention some potential "references" -- concrete sources of information -- but upon examination, these fade into non-relevance. For instance, there's this:
-----In 1995, the MERLIN creators were approached by a Strategic Planning Office of the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff and asked to provide a long-range forecast and timetable for potential incidents of domestic terrorism over the following seven years. This "white paper" which was submitted in July 1995, included indications of a significant threat culminating in the Fall of 2001, which we now know to be the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center and The Pentagon. -----
The site provides a link to the JCS "white paper", which can be found here:
http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/jcspaper.htm
along with a more detailed version (with Timetrak graphs) here:
http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/JCSPaper.pdf
-----MERLIN: An Essential Tool For Long-Range Situation Assessment
CASE STUDIES RELATED TO NATIONAL SECURITY (DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL)
Prepared For:
Joint Chiefs of Staff Futures Branch Joint War Fighting Center Fort Monroe, Virginia
18 July 1995
UNCLASSIFIED -----
It should be noted right up-front that the Merlin Project site makes two rather significant claims for this paper: (1) that the JCS approached Merlin to write a white paper and (2) that the white paper foreshadowed the 9/11 attacks.
Neither of these appears to be the case.
The paper in question was a submission to the JCS, but there is no indication that it was ever requested by the JCS, at least not in a meaningful sense.
The absence on any contractural-type of language in the report strongly suggests that the Merlin Project was not hired to create the paper, but rather submitted it gratis.
Furthermore, the fact it was submitted to JCS really carries no particular meaning. I could just as easily call up any branch of the military, tell them I have an important invention that will revolutionize the way they do things, and be "invited" to send in my ideas by someone on the other end of the phone hoping to get rid of me as quickly as possible. This does not make my subsequent submission a "white paper" in any normal usage of the term. I don't know that this was the course of event with the Merlin Project, but there's nothing to indicate otherwise.
As for the 9/11 claim, I can see absolutely nothing in the paper that relates to this. In fact, the paper does not mention any dates beyond the year 1998, and it is difficult to see how any of the language in the paper can be construed as referring to 9/11. If -- after reading the paper yourself -- you find otherwise, I'd love to hear back from you as to what you found.
By the way, independently of the paper for JCS, the site does post a 9/11 "Timetrak" graph:
http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/Library/Sept%2011%20-%202001%20Attack.pdf
From what I can tell, this plot was run on 9/11/2001, so it can hardly be said that it predicted anything regarding that eventful day. What's more, in looking over the graph itself, I sure can't see anything of significance in the plots around September 2001 -- can you?
But back to the JCS report. Here are some excerpts of note from the report, along with my comments:
--As an adjunct to traditional intelligence sources and techniques, MERLIN offers the possibility of serving as a horizon fence early warning system poised to provide an alert well in advance of any otherwise unexpected shifts in the status or stance of adversaries......From the outset its primary application was clearly envisioned as being in the geopolitical forecasting realm. Consequently it would be of greatest utility to intelligence analysts and military planners.
[This, then, is the function of Merlin -- to serve as an early warning system for otherwise unexpected geopolitical events]
--Although the underpinnings of MERLIN rest on a foundation of cyclic behavior which may seem less rock solid than the physics of microelectronics, military research has always been characterized by focussed pragmatism. The essential question is not "How does it work?" but "How well does it work?" What is its empirical utility.
[In essence, they are sidestepping the question of How does Merlin work, and instead, treating it as a "black box" -- it does **something** but they're not willing to say what. This is NOT science as it is normally practiced]
--In case after case it has nailed the timetable of major world events with shocking accuracy. On the record in annual CNN Larry King Live appearances and in innumerable other venues.
[They're saying "the proof is in the pudding". But oddly, they offer neither proof nor pudding, but merely mention CNN, et al. Nowhere in the report is their actual "track record" detailed, despite the "innumerable" opportunities to do so.]
--It must be strongly emphasized that all of this has been accomplished by an unfunded bootstrap effort by the MERLIN Project Research Group team of Paul Guercio and George Hart. In spite of its reported successes MERLIN is actually still in its Model T phase. With external support this already useful tool could be honed to a much sharper edge...
[Translation: We need money, please give us some. This, at least, is a time-honored tradition among scientists]
--...and its performance validated and quantitatively characterized in carefully constructed statistical studies, initially retrospective and eventually prospective.
[This is interesting, as they are admitting that (1) the performance of Merlin has not been validated or "quantitatively characterized" since they haven't had the resources to do so, and (2) even with funding, they would first conduct a retrospective validation -- that is, see if Merlin could "predict" events that have already happened, before venturing to study whether it could, in fact, predict anything about the future]
--MERLIN is a computer-based forecasting technology that combines equations derived from planetary time cycles with past historical data and blends that information into a chronograph(r) or Timetrak(r) that plots the chronology of future events....
[This description of Merlin is almost shockingly hollow. It says nothing about the system -- what principles it is based on, how it works, what the significance of "planetary cycles" are, what sort of data is fed into the system, etc, etc. Nowhere in the paper is anything more offered by way of explanation]
--MERLIN was initially developed in the summer of 1989. In the fall of the same year, the collapse of the Honicker government in East Germany and subsequent dissolution of the entire Soviet Union, was MERLIN's first and most prescient call to date.
[Once again, there is absolutely no validation or reference or confirmation or anything to lend credibility other than a simple statement along the lines of "we predicted the downfall of the USSR"]
--At present, the software alone does not make specific predictions regarding the precise nature of a forthcoming event or episode. It cannot provide a detailed forecast for the actual circumstances to occur. Those forecasts require review by an experienced analyst with a solid working knowledge of the cast of characters and overall context of the situation. Also, a minimum of three MERLIN Timetraks(r) that represent key players or factors in the situation under consideration are generally required for the most precise time-sensitive forecasts. This triangulation permits common points of convergence in the trendlines to be isolated, noted, and interpreted with a high degree of confidence. In such cases, a better than 70% accuracy rate has been demonstrated over a six year period.
[The need for an experienced analyst to interpret the Merlin output calls into question the reproducibility of the results -- do all analysts tend to come to the same conclusions/predictions? And again, the glib mention of a 70% accuracy rate, with no description of what this means (what was accurately predicted) an no reference allowing for validation]
I could go on and on, but I hope you see the point. In this -- the most detailed write-up of the Merlin system that I could find -- there is no meaningful scientific content, and no information to butress the credibility of the system.
You asked specifically about the information posted at:
http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/reading_a_timetrak.htm How to Interpret a Timetrak
I will not spend a great deal of attention on this, as it suffers from the same sort of shortcomings I outlined for the much-more detailed document to the Joint Chiefs. However, a few additional points are worth noting:
--Our experience has been that MERLIN makes the correct call at least 70% of the time, over the course of 15 years of research, in addressing questions where a coin toss' often represents the extent of current technology.
[Once more, empty claims. Fifteen years of research, but not a single citation or reference is made! A claim of being 70% correct, but no indication whatsoever as to what this means. Correct about what? Correct according to what criteria? Correct in who's judgement? By the way, a 70% record of being "correct" may or may not be noteworthy. I can predict that it will be warm and sunny in Los Angeles tomorrow, and I'll be correct 95% of the time....but so what?]
--The MERLIN chronograph or Timetrak is a composite image that is made up of two separate time models. The solid or darker portion of the display is often reflective of EXTERNAL objective realities, when applied to an individual. It indicates factors such as their career, status or living situation. The shaded or lighter portion reflects more INTERNAL subjective concerns, for example health or emotional matters. Analogous factors can often be applied even to countries or projects and situations, where a meaningful reference can be drawn. An example might be the strength of the fabric of a society as compared to say, it's GDP or domestic output.
There can also be another dimension to these shading differences. The solid or darker portion of the display generally identifies the level of culminating long-term cyclic activity. It represents factors affecting the situation that have a structural or `fixed' quality. The kind of conditions we generally think of as 'fate.' The shaded or lighter portion generally indicates the level of cumulative short-term activity. It represents factors that have a less stable, more `fluid' quality. These are the kinds of conditions we associate with consciousness-driven circumstance or `free will.' Heightened eventfulness most often occurs when both patterns appear simultaneously or when one gives way to the other.
[The presentation of the Timetraks is yet again something else with no particular meaning since: (a) there is no explanation of how the graphs are generated or what they measure (b) there is no clear definition or explanation of the relevant terms or how they relate to the model -- is a person's "health" or "living situation" or a country's "fabric of society" an input to or an output of the model? Who can say?] (c) there is no clear guidance for "reading" the graphs -- I doubt any two people would look at the same plots and come to similar conclusions about the "importance" of particular dates.]
--In such cases, a better than 75% accuracy rate has been demonstrated in over 15 years of high-visibility research. (Source: CNN, NBC, NPR)
[In citing CNN etc as the "source" of the 75% figure, they are essentially admitting -- we have no research to cite, so we're citing our own statements to the press]
By the way, I conducted a search of newspaper, magazine and TV-transcript stories about the Merlin Project to see what turned up. Indeed, the Merlin Project has been featured a few times on the Larry King show (I didn't find any references on other stations) as well as in a USA Today newspaper article. The news reports add some additional perspective, but don't provide anything that could be labeled "science". Here are a few excerpts along with my comments:
-----
USA TODAY December 31, 1991
A modern Merlin predicts future // Computers and stars are guides
[Basic report on the Merlin Project, with a few predictions at the end of the article...I'll leave it to you to gauge whether they hit the 70-75% "correct" predictions that they lay claim to]
For 1992 and into 1993:
- Yeltsin's timeline shows a high amount of activity. He is likely to fail to resolve food or social problems, after which a second coup looms.
- A ''dramatic shift'' in China between now and February 1992, with events ''culminating in late 1992.'' That includes a resurgence of the democracy movement and major changes in the ruling hierarchy.
- Castro's government in Cuba ''goes unstable'' between 1992 and 1993, with the bearded ruler out by mid-1993.
- A ''turning point'' in the AIDS epidemic sometime from October 1993 to February 1994. It could be a vaccine.
- Major unrest in former East Germany, with strikes and massive unemployment. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl stands a chance of being dumped by the end of 1992.
- Transition point in the Mideast peace talks in February or March 1992. ''Movement apparent at that point or talks break down.''
-----
[The predictions here are too diffuse to summarize in any concise way, but there's a quote from Mr. Guercio regarding Merlin's status as a scientific endeavor]
CNN: Larry King Live December 27, 1991
KING: United States troops stormed the desert to stop Saddam Hussein's forces; Israel opens peace talks with its Arab enemies; the Lebanon hostages are released and returned to their loved ones - all surprises to some, but 'MERLIN' knew it was coming all along. 'MERLIN' is a computer project with a dollop of science and a dash of astrology and now 'MERLIN' is setting its mechanical sights on 1992. Joining me here in Washington are 'MERLIN's' developers. They are futurist Paul Guercio and physicist George Hart.
...
Mr. GUERCIO: ...this is that it's a breakthrough area of science. It's something that we- Frankly, coming here tonight is an interesting exercise because we're giving your viewers a chance to find out about something which science essentially disavows because its an area that they've mostly not explored.
-----
[Interesting quote here about the sensitivity of Merlin to initial conditions -- an error of a few hours in someone's time of birth totally throws off the result. Hard to imagine a system producing any reliable results with that sort of sensitivity]
CNN: Larry King Live January 1, 1993
The Merlin Project's 1993 Predictions
...Let's get down to Castro, Fidel Castro, one of the last remaining communist leaders, one George Bush kept insisting would fall, along with Gorbachev. What do you see about Castro?
Mr. HART: -yeah, and it's [unintelligible] to 1989 to the present. We see a reflection in Merlin of the underlying disorder that's beginning to spread widely through Castro's Cuba. The sense one gets is of Fidel slowly sinking into quicksand. And Merlin's rather unambiguous prediction is that by the end of this year he's very likely to disappear from the world stage.
...Bill Clinton has a maximum of maybe a year to 18 months to get his program in place, or we're going to be looking for someone else to elect in '96
...On the tax question you raised, I think eventually he's just, like Willie Sutton, going to have to go where the money is, and that will probably be a tax on consumption combined with a tax on inheritances.
Mr. GUERCIO: I also think-
TILLOTSON: What, general consumption?
Mr. HART: Yes. A nationwide sales tax equivalent, to be able to draw into the underground economy.
TILLOTSON: I ask in that the gasoline tax was one that kept cropping up during the election, but you don't see it that specifically.
Mr. HART: Not that narrowly. I think it will have to be an even broader base than that...Clinton has a very short length of time to get the economy in some kind of healthy shape, or we're going to be going through the same kind of doldrums, you know, beginning later in the year that we've seen for the last couple of years.
5th TELEPHONE CALLER: When you were on this program last year with Merlin and there was a question as to whether George Bush would win the 1992 election...and it was interpreted that Merlin forecast that George...Bush would get in by a slight margin, but there was no sign of Quayle. Bill Clinton's now the president. What happened?
Mr. GUERCIO: Well, that's a good question. I'm surprised Mary didn't ask it, but since you did- I think the simple answer is that Merlin can be wrong. We are limited by the input of the information. In the case of George Bush, we were given an afternoon birth time for George Bush, and it turns out he was born in the morning. Sometimes-
TILLOTSON: Faulty data.
Mr. GUERCIO: -well, no, it was our mistake, we should have double-checked it, you know. We can't blame the system. The system did exactly what it's supposed to do. But what's interesting is that the difference of six hours or eight hours in birth time produced an extension of the line in George Bush's run which caused us to essentially predict that he was going to stay put, because there was no break, in other words, like this in the line.
==========
And lastly, I checked the Patent Office regarding the excimer laser that Dr. Hart reputedly invented and lo and behold:
UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE GRANTED PATENT 4143336 March 6, 1979
Xenon bromide (XeBr) excimer laser
INVENTOR: Searles, Stuart K., Burke, VA; Hart, George A., Levant, ME
[so in the laser physics department, at least, he has som credentials]
==========
The bottom line on all this is that the Merlin Project completely fails the criteria I laid out at the beginning of this note: adherence to the scientific method, and immersion in the culture of the scientific community.
I'm not saying their predictions are successful or unsuccessful -- I'll leave that to you and others to judge. But they did not arrive at their predictions by anything that resembles a scientific process.
I trust this information fully answers your question and provides the sort of perspective you were looking for on the Merlin Project.
However, please don't rate this answer until you have everything you need. If you would like any additional information, just post a Request for Clarification to let me know how I can assist you further, and I'm at your service.
All the best,
pafalafa-ga
I'm glad you appreciated the information and perspective I provided. I must say, I enjoyed the challenge.
As for links to the news reports, I'm afraid they don't exist. The excerpts were found in the Lexis-Nexis database, which is only available via subscription.
Your local library may have access to newspaper and transcript databases, and if so, they can provide full copies of the articles (I cannot post copies here, since they are ). Also, a library may be able to obtain them through interlibrary loan.
Let me know if you need any more details in order to track these materials down.
And again, thanks.
paf
I see that some of the line breaks are messy, especially where I used dashes (----), as I tend to do (usually, without incident).
If the answer is too hard to read, let me know, and I'll find a way to clean it up and repost it.
paf